Green Shoots & Leaves

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The Market TickerIt may be “politics as usual” to never talk about how bad the economy really is – never talk about the budget deficit in honest terms – and never talk about how revenues are and have been cratering across the board for governments. But when you are facing a truly horrific situation in this regard, and you need everyone on board to make sacrifices – especially government positions where employees feel especially entitled - ”politics as usual” is particularly dangerous.

Forbes – The trouble in the commercial real estate markets is getting ugly, as the precarious situation of Dubai World has made all too clear.Expect many more unpleasant situations like that one. Speculative-grade debt issuers are bracing for the default rate to hit 12% to 14% by the end of 2009, according to our projections at Bain & Company. The last time the U.S. economy experienced default rates of that magnitude was 28 years ago. The current long-term average default rate is 4.5%; as recently as 2007, it was just under 1%. These failures are not limited to small or marginal firms; they are happening at large companies with at least $100 million in assets, and have, after all, already hit legendary businesses like General Motors, Lehman Brothers and General Growth Properties.

Seeking Alpha – Yes, we have a few green shoots in the economy. But all the stats coming out are based against the incredibly dismal year we had in 08. In other words, things are getting marginally better compared to the worst year in the last 200.

Bloomberg – Most Europeans believe the worst of the economic crisis has yet to feed through to the labor market, the European Union said, citing a Eurobarometer survey.

Bloomberg – Foreclosure filings in the U.S. will reach a record for the second consecutive year with 3.9 million notices sent to homeowners in default, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

 

Seeking Alpha – Commercial real estate downturn marches on.

Reuters – Germany to sell H1N1 vaccine due to weak demand.

Brussel’s Journal – The European Union, in order to save itself from the faults of its own legislation, has decided that Iceland and the Icelandic people are expendable. Realising its own failures the EU has decided, through the British and Dutch governments, that the Icelandic authorities have to shoulder the responsibility which is rightfully the EU regulators’. This is what the so-called Icesave dispute is mainly about.

The Market Ticker – Dubai – screwing everybody.

Brisbane Times – THE OPPOSITION finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, believes the United States government could default on its debt, triggering an ”economic Armageddon” which will make the recent global financial crisis pale into insignificance.

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