The End of the World as we know it

There seems to be some sort of conflict brewing in the Middle East. Given that Iran is building hardened facilities to expedite their nuclear program, one can safely assume that they are serious about getting their atomic bomb. Their neighbor, Pakistan, has the bomb. The press is silent about the possibility that they are getting any sort of assistance from that quarter. The media is also quiet about the support of Russia and China for that state. I am sure the military types, whose job it is to watch this sort of stuff, are fully aware of the various troop movements, capabilities, and arsenals being laid in for conflict. Aside from that, would it not be kind of obvious that if Iran was planning a serious conflict, it would be preparing for a serious conflict? How about you: are you prepared? * * * *

Open Borders. If you were planning a serious conflict, what advantage would you be making of the open borders of your enemy? I do not know, I am not a military planner; I do not know what sort of assets the bad guys have, nor what sort of targets they would be after. I do know they can get their cadre into the country real easy. And, I suspect, whatever special equipment they need can be brought in as well. It should not be too difficult to arrange some paying university positions for James Bond. Heck, have the enemy subsidize his own destruction. Obama can apologize to whoever even as he harvests the ‘America under attack’ bump in popularity.

Airstrike air path. There is some speculation that the Israel is going to bomb Iran. How are they going to get there? If they take the short cut over Iraq there are political implications. What if the Yanks do not tell the Iranians about the sweeping in hordes of Israeli aircraft? Kinda makes them complicit. What if the Yanks warn the Iranians? Kinda pisses off the Israeli’s, what with all the dead Jew pilots scattered across Iran. Gosh darn. I do not think if the Yanks sell out Israel it will earn the love and adoration of the religion of peace world. Nope. Looks kinda bad either way, just the way wars really are. And, you can make things gloomier by factoring in failure to take out the installations. And the several burning aircraft Israel is bound to leave on the ground hither and yon. Do not forget the last Lebanese adventure when the once invincible Israeli air force failed at taking out the dug in whoever that faction was. Iran has more digging in ability, by the way.

Enough gloom.
When it happens, it happens.

5 Responses to “The End of the World as we know it”

  1. Malcolm Says:

    The Iran ‘problem’ is all smoke and mirrors. There’s a dust up every 6 months so the leaders in Iran don’t have to explain to their people why they are starving. Without the creation of a fake outside threat, the government of Iran could stand.
    The current President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, is facing term limits, and will be out of office in August of 2013. So him personally as a problem isn’t a long-term issue. And, when you look at the reasons for his original election (the failure of the previous president to bring about promised reform), it’s pretty certain that the people of Iran themselves want liberalization.
    The best thing we can do is leave them alone to collapse on their own. Given a choice between the Iraq model (attack and then own the problem) or the Libyan model (let the people do their own dirty work), the best option is to let them fix their own problems while doing what we can to vocalize the philosophy of freedom.
    The Iran-Iraq war also created a hole in their population distribution; they’re currently left with the very old and the very young; which, of course, favors the young over time.
    Russia and China are giving Iran ‘support’ for the same reason as the ‘support’ they give to Syria: these nations are their biggest customers, especially in terms of arms. If these countries get out of line they’ll cut off their support; but until then they will find their markets where they can.
    As a side note, I’ve often said recently that I miss the old Soviet Union. They were the evil empire, but at least you: a) always knew where you stood with them; b) always knew how they would react to situations, which brought stability with clearly defined rules; and c) they helped to divide the world into two camps, limiting the small radical element that has become so troublesome since the downfall of the USSR.
    As to your question of ‘are you prepared’, being an American (and from the Detroit area), gun ownership is a long and treasured tradition. In my case, I do my part by owning 3 assault rifles and two pistols (all meticulously legal).
    As an aside: I think a more important question would be: are you prepared for when the Canadian housing bubble pops.

  2. malcolm Says:

    correction paragraph 1: without an outside threat, the government of Iran could NOT stand.

  3. marc in calgary™ Says:

    We are not prepared for our housing bubble bust, the government takes care of everything here, just stopping short of chewing our roughage for us.

    I sometimes think that China will pounce in the next big dustup.
    I have no idea how this plays out, or where to hide, although the mountains are an hour away.

  4. Fenris Badwulf Says:

    Malcolm: nice comment.

    It is true that states, cynical states, use crisis as a distraction to domestic problems.

    Letting the Iranians stew in their own juice seems to be the current foreign policy. There seems to be some sort of domestic resistance in that country, if the lying red corporate media is to be believed. And, astute states wishing to crowbar the spokes of the wheelchair of the mouthy lesser powers are wise to subvert and suborn. Vague rumors point at the demon CIA and the extra demon Mossad for doing this. Who can tell?

    None the less, the decision to send in the first airstrikes of World War Three will not be made by someone in an American uniform. And those powers on the short list of targets might not necessarily take a position of waiting for the first airstrikes to respond themselves. Instead of an airstrike, the first attack might be speed boats, suicide frogmen, or fanatic cadre already aboard the pertinent carriers (thanks to political correctness). Your countrymen are not sitting on top of the start button no more. You may be confident that the systems and protocols of the twentieth century are still in place, but this is the twenty first century. How many Major Hassans are in place to start a soldiers battle? Tell me you are two hundred percent confident that the employment equity, political correctness hierarchy has done its job? I am not convinced.

    As far as the Canadian Housing bubble, it is a non sequitur from the Major Hassan factor. The statists here are as crack pate as yours, and the non leftist, wise ones here are silent (in the face of the absence of freedom of speech) and are acting to isolate themselves from the conflagration, if that is the first one to strike. There are others, of course. Anti biotic resistant disease is one of the others. Do I need to name them all? The plunging spear head of the issue in the post is the Major Hassan factor. If you are confident it is not a problem, then fine. Sleep well in your bed. Vacation in Hawaii, rather than prepare. I hear Pearl Harbor has some excellent hotels.

  5. Malcolm Says:

    @ Fenris Badwulf:
    If you want a laugh, listen to or read up on “Fars News” It’s Iran’s version of Fox News. I mean it’s a mirror, except on the other side of course.
    I saw a PBS documentary some years ago having to do with the underground youth movement in Iran. They’re hiding in the basement with their heavy metal bands, they’re using windows computers, and they think the notion of a morality police is a joke.
    Time is on the side of peace. There is an entire generation coming of age who never lived under the Shah; they know that they’re supposed to hate America but they’re not sure why; and they love our tennis shoes, denim jeans, and Britney spears music. Once the old farts die, there will be some changes for sure.
    And let’s not forget the Arab spring. The feeling of empowerment that must come from the people of so many nations rising up to overthrow long-held dictatorships can’t have been missed in Iran. The last Iranian uprising (remember Neda) almost did the trick. The next one might take them over the top.
    As far as world war 3 or the collapse of society goes, I think the greatest risk is an intentional destruction of the electric grid. The US without electricity for 3 months would turn us into Iraq. And, with the generations-long effort to get people to stop smoking, many will freeze since they no longer own matches.

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